Newplay Prediction Index · Newplay 预测指数

Methodology · 计算方法

Each market is priced by a constant-product automated market maker. The implied probability of an outcome is its inverse pool share: p(i) = (1/pool_i) / Σ(1/pool_j). Markets bridged with Polymarket display the official CLOB Yes/No price instead. Probabilities reflect trading sentiment, not statistical forecasts, and do not constitute investment advice.

每个市场由恒定乘积自动做市商定价，结果的隐含概率为其资金池倒数份额：p(i) = (1/pool_i) / Σ(1/pool_j)。 与 Polymarket 桥接的市场展示其官方订单簿 Yes/No 价格。概率反映交易情绪而非统计预测，不构成投资建议。