Newplay Prediction Index · Newplay 预测指数
Live crowd-implied probabilities from real trading activity on Newplay — the zero-gas-fee Web3 prediction market with USDC settlement on BNB Smart Chain and TRON. Updated continuously; this page is regenerated on every request and cached for 5 minutes.
本页展示 Newplay 零 Gas 费 Web3 预测市场上由真实交易形成的群体隐含概率，市场以 USDC 在 BSC 与 TRON 链上结算。数据持续更新，页面缓存 5 分钟。
Methodology · 计算方法
Each market is priced by a constant-product automated market maker. The implied probability of an outcome is its inverse pool share: p(i) = (1/pool_i) / Σ(1/pool_j). Markets bridged with Polymarket display the official CLOB Yes/No price instead. Probabilities reflect trading sentiment, not statistical forecasts, and do not constitute investment advice.
每个市场由恒定乘积自动做市商定价，结果的隐含概率为其资金池倒数份额：p(i) = (1/pool_i) / Σ(1/pool_j)。 与 Polymarket 桥接的市场展示其官方订单簿 Yes/No 价格。概率反映交易情绪而非统计预测，不构成投资建议。
Active markets · 进行中的市场 (33)
| Market 市场 | Category 类目 | Implied probability 隐含概率 | Volume 交易额 | Cutoff 截止 (UTC) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Polymarket migrate to Solana? | business | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2027-01-01 05:00Z |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | business | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2027-01-01 05:00Z |
| Iran leadership change by...? | geopolitical | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2027-07-01 03:59Z |
| Next French Presidential Election | politics | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2027-04-30 00:00Z |
| Fed Decision in October? | business | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-10-28 23:59Z |
| Will Justin Sun's lawsuit against Jing Tian result in no known contested civil judgment by July 1st, 2028? | entertainment | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2028-07-01 04:00Z |
| Will Polymarket IPO by December 31, 2026? | business | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2028-01-01 05:00Z |
| Which company has the best AI model end of September? | tech | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-10-01 03:59Z |
| 美国中期选举前特金会吗 （截至 11月29日 13:37 KST） | geopolitical | 是 50.0% / 否 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-11-29 04:37Z |
| 努利号10月7日会发射吗 （截至 10月30日 00:32 KST） | tech | 是 50.0% / 否 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-10-29 15:32Z |
| Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | geopolitical | Yes 12.5% / No 87.5% | 0 USDC | 2027-01-01 04:59Z |
| Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? | business | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-12-31 00:00Z |
| Gemini 4.0 released by...? | tech | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-12-01 04:59Z |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | geopolitical | Yes 11.5% / No 88.5% | 0 USDC | 2027-01-01 04:59Z |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | politics | Yes 4.3% / No 95.7% | 0 USDC | 2026-12-31 00:00Z |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | geopolitical | Yes 3.6% / No 96.3% | 0 USDC | 2026-12-31 00:00Z |
| Brazil Presidential Election | politics | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-10-04 00:00Z |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 | politics | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2028-11-07 00:00Z |
| US x China tariff agreement by December 31? | geopolitical | Yes 94.0% / No 6.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-12-31 00:00Z |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | geopolitical | Yes 26.5% / No 73.5% | 0 USDC | 2026-12-31 00:00Z |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? | people | Yes 22.5% / No 77.5% | 0 USDC | 2026-12-31 00:00Z |
| Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? | business | Yes 0.1% / No 100.0% | 0 USDC | 2027-07-01 00:00Z |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | politics | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2028-11-07 00:00Z |
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | politics | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2028-11-07 00:00Z |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | geopolitical | Yes 0.4% / No 99.5% | 0 USDC | 2026-09-30 00:00Z |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | geopolitical | Yes 17.0% / No 83.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-12-31 20:00Z |
| NBA: 2027 Champion | sports | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2027-07-01 00:00Z |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | geopolitical | Yes 5.3% / No 94.7% | 0 USDC | 2026-09-30 19:59Z |
| Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026? | geopolitical | Yes 4.5% / No 95.5% | 0 USDC | 2026-12-31 00:00Z |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | geopolitical | Yes 68.5% / No 31.5% | 0 USDC | 2026-12-31 20:59Z |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | geopolitical | Yes 22.5% / No 77.5% | 0 USDC | 2026-12-31 00:00Z |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | geopolitical | Yes 30.5% / No 69.5% | 0 USDC | 2026-12-31 00:00Z |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | geopolitical | Yes 14.5% / No 85.5% | 0 USDC | 2026-12-31 00:00Z |
Recently resolved / closed · 近期已判定或截止 (67)
| Market 市场 | Category 类目 | Final implied 最终概率 | Volume 交易额 | Cutoff 截止 (UTC) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Xi Jinping visit US by...? | geopolitical | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-12-31 23:59Z |
| What price will Bitcoin hit in September? | crypto | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-10-01 04:00Z |
| Sao Paulo Open: Completed Match: Xiaodi You vs Alina Charaeva | sports | Yes 100.0% / No 0.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-09-21 17:00Z |
| Yong Hye-in 会在国会举行新闻发布会吗？ （截至 9月14日 10:56 KST） | politics | 是 92.0% / 否 8.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-09-14 01:56Z |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | business | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-09-16 00:00Z |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause) | geopolitical | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-09-30 23:59Z |
| UNITREE (宇树科技) Up or Down on September 7, 2026? | entertainment | Up 50.0% / Down 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-09-07 07:00Z |
| Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | geopolitical | Yes 100.0% / No 0.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-10-01 03:59Z |
| # of views of Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look on week 1? | game | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-09-03 23:59Z |
| Bitcoin above ___ on September 4? | crypto | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-09-04 16:00Z |
| 截止9月15号孙宇晨或景甜本人及其工作团队是否发布正式回应 | entertainment | 是 50.0% / 否 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-09-14 16:00Z |
| US Open ATP: Luciano Darderi vs Harry Wendelken | sports | Yes 100.0% / No 0.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-09-06 15:00Z |
| US Open ATP: Completed Match: Martin Landaluce vs Jacob Fearnley | sports | Yes 100.0% / No 0.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-09-06 15:00Z |
| US Open ATP: Completed Match: Mariano Navone vs Novak Djokovic | sports | Yes 100.0% / No 0.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-09-06 15:00Z |
| US Open ATP: Completed Match: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Adrian Mannarino | sports | Yes 99.6% / No 0.4% | 0 USDC | 2026-09-06 15:00Z |
| 海南防汛响应会升级吗 （截至 9月2日 23:40 北京时间） | politics | 是 50.0% / 否 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-09-02 15:40Z |
| 罗曼望远镜能按计划升空吗 （截至 9月1日 00:31 KST） | tech | 是 50.0% / 否 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-08-31 15:31Z |
| # of views of Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look on day 1? (Lower Strikes) | game | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-08-28 23:59Z |
| OpenAI’s Astra released by…? | tech | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-11-01 03:59Z |
| OpenAI’s Astra released by…? | tech | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-11-01 03:59Z |
| Real Madrid CF vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol | sports | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-08-26 19:00Z |
| US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? | geopolitical | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-09-30 23:59Z |
| What price will Ethereum hit in August? | crypto | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-09-01 04:00Z |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...? | geopolitical | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2025-12-31 12:00Z |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | geopolitical | Yes 4.0% / No 96.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-08-20 23:59Z |
| Bitcoin above ___ on August 14? | crypto | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-08-14 16:00Z |
| Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in August? | geopolitical | Yes 1.9% / No 98.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-08-31 23:59Z |
| US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? | geopolitical | Yes 0.1% / No 100.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-08-31 23:59Z |
| What price will Bitcoin hit in August? | crypto | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-09-01 04:00Z |
| The International 2026: Winner | game | Yes 50.0% / No 50.0% | 0 USDC | 2026-09-10 15:16Z |